Ritwik Gupta profile picture

Ritwik Gupta

ritwikg [at] umd.edu

AI in chaotic environments and governance of dual-use military-civil AI

Assistant Professor, University of Maryland

Technical Director for Autonomy, Defense Innovation Unit (DIU)

Recent Publications

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TCBench: A Benchmark for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting at the Global Scale

Milton Gomez, Marie McGraw, Saranya Ganesh S., Frederick Iat-Hin Tam, Ilia Azizi, Samuel Darmon, Monika Feldmann, Stella Bourdin, Louis Poulain-Auzéau, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonathan Lin, Dan Chavas, Chia-Ying Lee, Ritwik Gupta, Andrea Jenney, Tom Beucler

TCBench is a benchmark for evaluating global, short to medium-range (1-5 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity. It builds on the IBTrACS observational dataset and includes state-of-the-art dynamical and neural weather models. Designed for accessibility, TCBench helps AI practitioners tackle domain-relevant TC challenges.

arXiv preprint paper github
Artwork for TCBench: A Benchmark for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting at the Global Scale
The LLM Mirage: Economic Interests and the Subversion of Weaponization Controls

Ritwik Gupta, Andrew W. Reddie

U.S. AI security policy is increasingly shaped by an LLM Mirage, the belief that national security risks scale in proportion to the compute used to train frontier language models. That premise fails in two ways: it miscalibrates strategy because adversaries can obtain weaponizable capabilities with task-specific systems, and it destabilizes regulation because compute thresholds are easily renegotiated as domestic priorities shift.

ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT) 2026 paper
Artwork for The LLM Mirage: Economic Interests and the Subversion of Weaponization Controls